You Don't Raise Heroes, You Raise Nelsons

Nate: Hello everybody and welcome back to talking about Birds. The only Cardinal podcast that just like Ben's golf swing still this bad after years of development. name is Ne

Ben: Ah.

Nate: and I am joined as always by Ben Samora.

Ben: If that's a reference that to putt putt, that is not a golf swing, that is may, maybe my approach game is bad. Maybe putting greenwork is bad ever.

Nate: into

Ben: My God.

Nate: If you have an idea for the opening bit, text or leave us a voicemail at 8 4 8 48 birds. And thank you to Chandler, a new submitter who sent that in, as well as some nice words about us and the show. Thank you so much, Chandler. Whoever you are, wherever we are, wherever you are, we appreciate it. And uh,

Ben: The core misunderstanding of the sport of golf. I feel like, I know it's a dig, but I would like to argue that my golf swing is probably as best as good as it's ever. Ever been in my life right now. Um, 'cause I'm a man of leisure, obviously. Now that being said, you get me on the greens. I, I'm not really gonna sit here and I, I don't really have a lot of things to, to say about myself there.

Um,

Nate: I, I imagine he is gone home and he is broken all of his golf clubs, all of this from, from our little event in, in Florida in.

Ben: When I, I, I did break a golf club one time when I was playing. I think it was when I was in high school. I played at, I'm sure the St. Louis people remember Palmy Creek. I don't know if Palmy Creek is still there, but I played in a, uh, high school tournament, um, every year. Um, it was a league I guess, and I broke a club, um, one time.

I think I, yes. I think I snapped it over my knee. Which is, is, well, that's the difference between you and I. You, you are a, like a hollow man that does not get really happy, sad, or angry.

Nate: Uh guess what

Ben: cool.

Nate: when it came out bad today Um but

Ben: sexually aggressive.

Nate: Yeah

Ben: I don't need that in my life.

Nate: you actually did you break it or did you just bend it like you bent the metal across Over your leg Break your

Ben: I'm not trying to sound, not trying to sound tough or anything like that, but it is shockingly easy to snap a golf club over your knee like anybody could do it. Do a baseball bat. Now that's, that's a real man right there. That's, that's a strong, that's a,

Nate: I

Ben: that's it. Yeah. reserved for Bo Jackson. I'm telling anybody listening to this call go into, if you have a a, a, if you have a golf club in your garage, I guarantee you could snap it over your knee with minimal effort.

I was honestly surprised how easily it snapped. I don't know. You know, it was a kid brain. I was, I was probably 16 when it happened. Um, I don't even know if that was my intention or not, but it snapped very easily and I think I just threw it in the garbage and went to the next hole.

Nate: I remember uh I was a uh I was a skater boy you know back in uh middle school and early high school and whatnot and I remember like so desperately to snap my board in half like that was a sign that you like were really good and had skated a lot and like had worn it But I was never good and and so I would do stuff like on it and like trying like basically trying to snap it in half to uh showcase that I was actually good at it and I just never I failed at snapping my skateboard

Ben: Yeah, I buy that. I mean, you probably weighed 120 pounds back then. You're a tiny little man.

Nate: high

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: weighing about 125 pounds so

Ben: I weighed 125 pounds in grade school.

Nate: grade or so I as tall as

Ben: Yeah. Wow.

Nate: And but what do you think was more disappointing Um me smoking you and putt putt or those uh hot wings that we got uh later uh the day before

Ben: I have to go with the hot wings. I, I actually got, um, when I was back home, uh, we went out to bar trivia and God, we got our asses handed to us. But I ordered hot wings that evening because I felt as though we had been talking about hot wings. We went to a place that had hot wings. They were. Arguably some of the worst wings I've ever had.

The brass ring in Jupiter, Florida. Arguably some of the worst. I'll call them out.

Nate: didn't think

Ben: Some of the,

Nate: that it's true

Ben: no, I will. I will. the way. Great staff. Our waitress was fantastic. The beer was cold, everything else was great. The bathrooms were weird. Um, but that's okay.

Nate: there

Ben: Sure. But arguably some of the worst wings I've had.

Um, and like I said, I went and ordered wings when I got back home. And it's not like these wings were spectacular, but compared to the brass ring in Jupiter, Florida, not even close.

Nate: things were hard as hell They were they were they were overcooked by a mile

Ben: Yeah, it was, uh, poorly sauced, um, overcooked. It was not great and we ordered a lot of 'em. You know when you're like, when you order a lot.

Nate: it was like our initial

Ben: Yeah,

Nate: like we'll get this and maybe we'll get more uh if we uh and we didn't eat all of em cause they weren't very good And then we did ask Rob Box and then left the box on the table

Ben: yeah,

That was, both of those things were my fault. I asked for the box and then forgot the box.

Nate: we should have done I mean I we have we didn't talk about it on last week's episode but a common runner of apparently every spring training stadium on either side of Florida brought to you by Hooters the Hooters There were flying by pulling Hooters signs There were representatives at the ballparks There were like much stuff was brought to you by Hooters Um really our vibe but I but everyone says they have good wings so I guess we should have uh

Ben: Florida baby. I think Florida is brought to you by Hooters.

Nate: So anyway uh

Ben: I'm sure the wings at Hooters were would be better than the wings that we got at the brass ring. Uh, ring in Jupiter, Florida.

Nate: to be a low bar to clear

Ben: Or they saw us walk in and they're like, give them the floor wings. These guys suck.

Nate: an hour ago Dig em

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: a

Ben: Yeah. That was, it's just, it's so, it's so unfun when you're excited for a food item, you're, you're, we, we suck it out. We sought out this restaurant according to a single Reddit thread.

Nate: was

Ben: The wings were good.

Nate: there

Ben: I'll tell you what, it's hard to find, uh, good journalism on the food scene in Florida.

So, um, I, I actually blame the listener for not giving us a recommendation.

Nate: listener

Ben: I, I feel like we ask for recommendations in and around Jupiter.

Nate: yeah Come on Chandler

Ben: I kind of meant the royal listener, but, uh, whoever, I guess all, all y'all.

Nate: All right well let's move on Ham bone We gotta we of course We got ourselves a packed show later We're going to complete our coverage of the NL central and we're gonna participate in a little game we played every year But first we gotta talk about Nelson Velasco as more right I mean what what are we doing here folks What are we do with this guy Hand bone Can you run through some numbers of the of currently the the Star of Cardinal Spring training Arguably

Ben: Star. Um, yeah, Nelson Velasquez is obviously, uh, he's putting, putting the hurt on some spring training pitchers, uh, down in South Florida this year. He has a woa of 4 86, which is ridiculous. Um, he has a WRC plus of 1 95, which does lead the club, and he's slugging 7 27 right now. It is of course extremely important to note that he has had 39 played appearances.

Um, this is a very short time. This is two weeks of games. Really, it is 12 games that he's played. Um, but uh. I guess I want to talk about like it's, I, I think the, the conversation has been in the Cardinal's media sphere about obviously this guy is going to make the team. Um, and I don't think I necessarily disagree with that.

I don't disagree with that. I think that it's fine and. We've kind of gone back, or I guess I've kind of gone back and forth on the import of bringing in a right-handed hitter. Um, this is the Cardinal's, right? This is their Austin Hayes or Miguel or whoever. Um, and, and he is showing progression. Um, there, there's some evidence that he may be more selective than he was in the past.

Last year in AAA with Pittsburgh and Kansas City, he ran a walk rate rate of about 10%, which was about double what it was previously. He's running a current walk rate of about 15%. Um, so I do think that like I, I think that this guy has legit power. He has legit bat speed. Um, in the past he has not shown ability to be selective at all at the plate.

Maybe make a little too much contact, a little too much swing in general. Um, but there is no doubt that he has power. And I, I guess where I'm rounding this out, Nate, is that like I, I am. Happy to see a cardinal succeeding in spring training who we didn't necessarily think was going to be, um, a guy that we were even going to talk about much this season.

That's inherently exciting. But what he's not a good outfielder, DH is covered.

Nate: Yeah Like

Ben: Um,

Nate: arguably

Ben: do so, so like, yeah, Nelson Velasquez should probably be on the team. Um. He's a bad outfielder. Uh, you, you know, he's on par with Jordan Walker. Maybe worse because he is just left less athletic. I like, what do we, what do we do with this guy?

Do I care? Is, is is really where I'm saying like, do I care about Nelson Velazquez? The only thing that, that I'll point to in his favor is he's only 27. has, um, basically a little over one year of service time, uh, accrued. So he could, you know, if let's say he does doink 30 bombs this year, he could be a cardinal for a while.

Nate: many examples around the league um of not really developing their true game power and their final approach until their mid to late twenties it happens there you know there's uh of course I can't think of a single example right now but uh it happens you know

Ben: Uh, the guy for the Blue Jays, Nate, the guy for the Blue Jays. Um, big bat flip,

Nate: Batista

Ben: Uh. Batista. There you go. Jose Batista was nobody and then came on the scene and when he was like 28,

Nate: there's and

Ben: that's a guy.

Nate: the Cardinals right now are in this spot where we should be chasing and in any and every glimpse of upside right Um frankly the the offense Right now to me like from in a long-term standpoint is almost more worrying than the pitching They've done so much work to stock the farm with potential pitchers that I feel like we have no idea it's going to look like but I feel like the future Cardinal pitching staff is is mostly in-house at this point Like we have they just need to develop and we'll figure out which ones fit and which ones don't Um the offense and the starting lineup we there's certainly a few People that we feel are locked in and will be here for a long time But outside of your mason winds and hopefully your JJs and and probably Yvonne um and every every single other spot is wide open right now And so if you've got a guy that is raking I don't see why you don't run it down and see um now is he Your long-term left fielder I don't think the Cardinals really want to build themselves as a team that has poor defense in the outfield Uh but what team does you know you you you chase what you have And so I think if he can hit Put him in left and we'll see what happens Uh if he hits at the major league level consistently the position will find we'll find a spot for him Long term everything's wide open Um but why not You know And he is 27 If he comes up and he is rough for a couple months at least we at least we know you know move em on and keep the

Ben: I.

Nate: taxi moving you know

Ben: I, I do think it, it is so funny because like everyone will always say spring training numbers mean nothing. Um, yet teams base competition and roster decisions on spring training performance,

Nate: doesn't matter

Ben: I do think.

Nate: is going to get a major league starting position over SJC or we'll get to it but like know a job from someone he had a really good

Ben: And

Nate: PAs basically

Ben: And that's the thing that I'm kind of like I'm losing my shit over here, is that we have 194 games played at the MLB level where he is rocking a 98 WRC plus. And over those 194 games, he's accrued 0.6 war. Like I said, he's not a good defender. He's not really a great base, uh, runner. Um, and he's been a fine hitter with some.

Flashes of power. So it's kind of funny to me that like spring training numbers don't matter. However, everyone and their brother are getting excited about Nelson Velazquez in 40 played appearances.

Nate: for excitement so

Ben: We are

Nate: our guys

Ben: the.

Nate: he's having the best spring by a lot J's doing well After that there's really not a lot to point to on the offensive side of people that are doing well We are gonna talk about another guy here in a moment Uh and shout out to Nolan Gorman who actually is putting together a pretty good spring Uh so but ultimately no one has been as exciting as os so it's just like well I I wanna be hyped about something Um so why about it you

Ben: And. I, so on balance, I agree with you. I think that that is probably the right take. But where I'm feeling today as we're recording this episode is that JC is back in Camp Jose Ferin, uh, has had more success at the minor league level than Nelson Velasquez. There are other guy like. Maybe just straight up Nathan Church should be taking at bats away from Nelson Velazquez.

'cause he's having a good little spring right now too. And I think that his ceiling is much higher. Um, and, and again, maybe I'm wrong, maybe he has turned a corner, maybe he's made a change. Maybe he is going to be a slugger this year and, and that would be a ton of fun. Um. In this moment, I do feel like we're overvaluing a small amount of plate appearances against not that great of pitching, um, especially with the WBC going on this year.

So the spring train, like just the average level of a spring training pitcher is down, I don't know, three, four ticks of what it normally is because of all those good pictures who are

Nate: yeah totally And and

Ben: so.

Nate: you're saying that Like I think while I agree with you that I'm right like why not chase it I will circle back to say I agree with you that the most likely thing though is that he's not actually this guy You my my point is why not

Ben: Yes.

Nate: down and and see but like I think it's very very likely that he's a around a 98 WC plus hitter at the major league level which honestly would have put him in like top four on the

Ben: Hey, we'll take it baby. Yeah, absolutely.

Nate: you know why not And we know you know if it doesn't work caught him and and go back to some of these other guys But is if he did make

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: power jump at his age 27 you know the the flip side to your argument of like If he did a if he had a league average WRC plus for a full year like that is an accomplishment for a rookie basically And so you could argue he okay he proved he could hit at MLB level and then now he's taken a step forward and maybe he is a one 10 WRC plus or one 15 or something like that Not all star but certainly better than average Like we could certainly use that

Ben: I think that if he can keep growing and not embarrass himself on defense, we would take a one 10 WRC Plus for the next two years. Easy. Whether or not he's a long-term solution, you know we'll, we'll. That remains to be seen, but this guy costs nothing. Um, you have a ton of control. Uh, the, the only thing you don't have with Nelson Velazquez is that he is out of options.

So, you know, he's either on the big league roster or, um, you know, potentially leaving a. The org. So yeah, I, I think when all of those things are added up and the fact that like, geez, I, I mean, how, how long is Jordan Walker gonna get Major League gad batts if it keeps going the way that I kind of feel like it's going to go, um, you know, when is Newt coming back?

Uh, you know, how often can you. Uh, rely on, on church and Ferme and sjc or whoever else to kind of patrol the outfield. So I'm not totally against it. And, and maybe I'm like raining on the parade a little bit, but I, um, I, I just think you know it, it was sober up on Nelson Velazquez. I'd love it. Love it to go off though.

I am rooting for it to work out.

Nate: Um I just wish you'd stop shitting all over his really great 39 plate appearances Like come on what have

Ben: Also like, are we calling him Nelly? Does he go by Nelly? Is Nelly going to be his walkup song when he comes up? Um, we were talking about this in spring training. I think it was Gorman. it, I think it was Gorman that was using a Nelly song. I'm so shocked that most Cardinals players aren't just playing Nelly.

Nate: over and over

Ben: Is it Nelly and then is it story of the Year? Are they from St. Louis? Who's the other? I feel like we had a.

Nate: They're a band that formed as a different band in in St Louis and then moved to California and Story of the

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: Seamless People like to claim ownership of that even

Ben: Alright. What about, all right, Nate, if I was a major League ball player, Ching. Ooh, that's, I actually love that song. That's a good song. Um, I think I would do Scott Joplin's, uh, what was it?

Nate: entertainer or uh ra Yeah Yeah Yeah Yeah that's the entertainer Yeah

Ben: I think I'd be rocking Scotty Jobs. Um, get the home crowd folks going.

Nate: everyone just throws waffle cones everywhere As I come walking up we'll get another uh St Louis World's Fair ref in

Ben: I was gonna, who else, who else is our, who else is from St. Louis? It's a popular musician.

Nate: right now Citi uh one of their a wage jerseys is a Tina Turner uh celebration basically Now sh she's not technically like born in St Louis but she spent a lot of her time in St Louis So yeah they have these uh a wage jerseys that have been accused of being Piss colored Um to be gold

Ben: Ah, okay.

Nate: they're they're kind of they're kind of yellow Uh but I actually think they're they're pretty good But they're Tina Turner focused uh a away jerseys which is pretty funny

Ben: That is odd. Uh, all right. I'm looking, I forgot Michael McDonald. I do be brothers are my, that would be a, a great walkup song.

Nate: Believes

Ben: obviously we talked about Scott Joplin. Oh yeah. Uh, SZA Sino, uh, Metro Boomin. Metro B Metro Boomin's probably the most famous. Contemporary person, so, um, all right. They, there should be more, I'm surprised there's not more of that.

There's, there's some good people to pick from.

Nate: much even people in St Louis Louis I I don't know I've been out of the game I don't wanna speak for St Louis too much but I don't see a lot of St Louis of Metro Boomin You know what I mean he has like I

Ben: they should, he's, he's the most famous person right now.

Nate: a he he

Ben: He wears cardinal's hats.

Nate: a city block party thing a little while ago which was pretty cool

Ben: Yeah, he's cool. Um, and, um, what about Johnny Johnson?

Nate: Oh

Ben: Remember Johnny Johnson?

Nate: all love that guy Him and his fiddle and three dogs I dunno Um I made

Ben: who that is? I was. Oh, wow. I, I bought it for a second there. All right.

Nate: just sounds like a guy who would've a fiddle and three

Ben: Oh, Chuck Berry. What, what are we doing? Okay. right. I'm done listening. St. Louis musicians.

Nate: bathroom

Ben: you know, now that he's dead, it's okay. Right?

Nate: Among Whom's amongst us

Ben: Well, what I, he can't, he cannot financially benefit from us listening to him anymore, so I feel like that's the, that's the line of Dmar. It's okay.

Nate: Yeah

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: talking about New bar

Ben: Uh, yeah.

Nate: bar

Ben: All right. Uh, he, uh, actually announced this himself, but I'm gonna paraphrase something, uh, that Derek Gould, uh, reported, um, Gould on NPA earlier this week.

The Cardinals have not yet officially set outfield. Their large NPA will open the season on the injured list, but he's yet to begin running on the field, and there's no schedule set for him to appear in a game before the team leaves Florida. Gould reported on Tuesday. That is the day before we are talking right now.

NPA is recovering from bilateral heel surgeries as we know, and the Cardinal's actions have been to prepare for someone else to be in left field for them as they open the season. Um, and I think it's fair to assume the person we were just talking about, Nelson Velazquez is going to be your left fielder.

It would be, I can't really think of a scenario that would stop that from happening. Um, but that's the direction we're going and you know, it's a huge bummer. 'cause you know, when we were learning about Herman's deformity or whatever, what's it called? deformity, obviously I was worried because it sounds terrifying, um, is something that comes outta Dr.

Frankenstein's lab or something like that. But you know, like hearing about this and hearing that basically he has been unhealthy for, um, the past couple of years. And I think that we've already, you know, we've always. Kind of, or, or thoughts we've talked about. All the underlying numbers suggest that Lars Nbar is probably going to be a good player at some point, or at least a player, a stack cast darling.

Um, getting him fully healthy with legs underneath him. I was really excited. And now I'm kind of, I'm not worried that this season isn't, is like gonna have a failure to launch or anything like that, but it does. Muddy up the waters and put everything into question. And anytime a guy doesn't get to have a spring training and then he gets left at the facility and he kinda limps his way back into the big leagues, like, I just don't like that.

And I don't know what it means for him in 2026. And I, I mean, I guess selfishly or, or, or more coldly like, seems like a slam dunk guy to move at the deadline if the cardinals are, are blown outta the water. So a lot of teams that could use a player like him, will he be able to establish himself? Will he be able to get healthy and on track and, and, and banging by any time this summer?

Um, you know, I don't know at this point.

Nate: I mean I think the ideal situation here is that he basically spends April rehabbing and either playing down at the facility or perhaps on one of the minor league teams and is basically just Playing on a team for a repeated amount of time that isn't the MLB team So he can completely basically have like a spraying and a rehab and and gear up and and then once everyone's feeling really confident you bring him up Hopefully maybe that's May it's late May And then you get a month or two of em and then yeah maybe he has a big time trade candidate I think that would be the ideal But I assume that they're just there's going to be zero rush on this whole thing I mean both feet recovering Um rush it there There's really no need Um so I don't know I I I feel in the same way like kind of just assuming we don't have Nu Bar until we do you know

Ben: That damn deformity. It is. It's like what's going to, and, and I, I, what I think is going to happen is that. He's going to get traded. Never having really had the opportunity to be fully healthy for an extended period of time. 'cause obviously we learned he wasn't healthy last year, even though he got a ton of abs in a Cardinals uniform and.

We are just not going to be able to cheer for the best version of Lars Nbar, which I still do think is it's a guy that's rocking a near 400 OBP and lacing the ball all over the field and playing fine enough defense, and that's gonna be a bummer. Um.

Nate: that this could still all happen for him The major league level um just will it be with the Cardinals It's an open question Um but I suspect they all still want to chase the upside of Lars new bar and I'm sure there is a hope That this albe a a slow recovery is a necessary one And maybe the what was holding him back and and the key to unlocking him is now he will actually be healthy And when we do finally get new bar back it's the new bar that we all hoped for I'd be very surprised if the Cardinals trade him without getting a good run of him healthy Um but how much control do they have left Probably Two

Ben: Uh, he is at four years of service time, uh, and he is a free agent after 2028.

Nate: So well you'd still get two more years of them as 2026

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: rough um you could still argue that it's worth to keep em around to see if maybe 2027 that's the the window is hopefully 27 and 28 and uh you know new bar what we believe new bar to be will fit on any sort of competing team And

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: guess it would depend on what these next three months look like and what sort of offers are out there on the table if they could actually trade em But there's no one right now at all that is a guaranteed outfielder for the St Louis Cardinals So uh it seems like you'd wanna hold onto em and see if if healthy new is one of those guys skies

Ben: Yeah, the outfield situation over the past handful of years has not been great. Like, remember when we were excited about Tommy Fam joining the club?

Nate: remember that Grand Slam he had last

Ben: Yes, yes. I will never forget that. That was a blast. That was so much fun.

Nate: Has he been signed He yeah he's on is he on Cincy He he got signed again Um he wants

Ben: Did

Nate: he wants to play until he is like 45 or something like

Ben: I looking it up right now, currently a free agent. This is a crime.

Nate: Come on Bring our boy back

Ben: Yeah. Like would you rather have him or Nelson Velazquez getting reps in the outfield?

Nate: different purposes

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: come on someone give Tommy a job He's a great clubhouse guy Everyone loves being around Tommy Fam Definitely not problematic in any sort of way and is a glue guy Definitely not the opposite

Ben: He's a glue guy. Nobody could argue that. Um,

Nate: We

Ben: and yeah, and he is got broken eyes. It's all the things you want in a player. Um, all right. Uh,

Nate: speaking of outfielders that are uh maybe good Well we meet on Sundays ham bone

Ben: You're skipping over. You're skipping over the news that just dropped today, Nathan.

Nate: so sorry Please

Ben: Cardinals. Yeah, the Cardinals, uh, are featuring five rookies in the spring breakout exhibition games, which start the game. Uh, the day that this episode comes out, JJ Weather Holt, Liam Doyle, Ronnie Rodriguez, Joshua Abbi and Leo Burnell are all going to be featured in those games.

They, uh, and the Dodgers both have five players. The Mariners are the only team with more players in these exhibition games, but I think that that's pretty exciting.

Nate: right Like when you dream of the the future of the the Cardinals I mean I know they're basically just pulling like almost the top five prospects in the Cardinal organization basically But like Erol Liam Doyle RiNo Josh Baez and Leo Bernal like it's a very fun group a very uh a group of a lot of different skill sets Um and I think we all expect Every one of these guys is going to be on the Major League roster in the next two years now what they all

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: to be we'll see Um but I I think it's uh we've been talking about it you know it's not right now is it necessarily the most fun to be a Cardinal fan as far as the day-to-day games but the long-term future for the Cardinals right now is as fun as it's been in a very long time

Ben: Yeah, and I think I am very excited to see what Ranel Rodriguez does in these opportunities because he is so much younger. Then, well at least the other Cardinals. And I would imagine most rest of the field that is going to be, um, uh, you know, playing in these games. So seeing a 19-year-old go up against these, uh, more advanced players I think will be very exciting.

So yeah, looking forward to that. Looking to forward to his performance, everything.

Nate: like I don't wanna get ahead of myself here but he's on like top prospect in baseball trajectory I mean Like his

Ben: Right.

Nate: his body what he does is what uh he keeps doing it which is a huge if there's a lot of work in between now and then but the age that he is done it at the skillset that he is bringing is the type of thing that flies up prospect rankings I mean it's why he already is flying up prospect rankings and if he can continue doing what he did last year uh this year at a new level like I I really think we will see him In top 10 lists and even like top five there's some big guys ahead of him of course Um but you know as people graduate and as he if he hopefully keeps raking I think he will be the next like top cardinal prospect

Ben: Yeah. If he maintains the power while, behind the dish, it's gonna, yeah. That, that's really easy to sell. Um, and people like his defense too. It's, it's a lot. There's a lot to like, so I'm excited for that. Like, I, I think I also said this a couple episodes ago. I'm really excited. I think that burnout has maybe a little more ish tendencies.

I'm kind of curious to see. What these guys all do. Um, also get my eyes on Liam Doyle a little bit more. It's gonna be exciting. Obviously we'll see jj, um, in the big leagues. We'll watch a ton of him later this year. Um, but yeah, excited to see these guys playing that, those exhibition games,

Nate: when did they start doing this It's it's one of the more fun

Ben: I think two years, two years ago feels about right. But I'm, I'm kind of making that up.

Nate: it's kinda like the uh the spring version of like the a FL right Spring training kind of is is winding down and you see all your top prospects come together to play a bunch of games And the a FL is uh you know the season has ended but a bunch of the top prospects all come together to play a few games you know um I think it's fun I think this is one of the things that MLB has been getting better at promoting the young guys I think more more than ever and this has been a a a continuing trend but more than ever does the average baseball fan have a general understanding of who some of the future young stars uh might be And I think that's good

Ben: Agree. And I also think, you know, from a Cardinals fan perspective, this, this is important for us. This is all we got going right now.

Nate: right All right

Ben: So yeah,

Nate: get back to the important work here

Ben: please take us to church, Nate.

Nate: that's what I was getting at We meet on Sundays uh at Ham Bone I know you've been you've been frankly you've been a preacher of it Can you tell us a little bit about Nathan Church

Ben: Yeah. Nathan Church is fifth by WRC plus in the Cardinals Spring training. Right now he has 37 plate appearances. He has a 1 27 WRC plus. The only people above him are JJ Nolan. Uh, who is, well I think Nate mentioned this earlier, really putting together a much stronger back half of Spring, Alec Sen and then of course Nelson Velazquez.

But he is, uh, performing well. I think like when you take into account the way that he performed across AA and AA last year, uh, which he had a 1 44 WRC plus in 86 games across. Both levels. Um, the fact that he obviously stumbled when he came up to the bigs, um, last year, the cup, that cup of coffee. Um, but that has come to the spring hitting fairly well.

I I don't think that Nathan Church is going to be, um, an all star or, you know, I don't know what his ceiling is. But I do think that we should be encouraged by the fact that a guy that can really go out there and get it defensively has a nice arm. All he is really done is hit for the past year and a half.

Nate: It's a compelling argument You know we all really want Victor Scott too to be the starting center fielder for a lot of reasons Well like on balance It's hard to pick him over Nathan Church Um I I think the the argue would maybe be here Vela Velazquez is not your left fielder It should just be Nathan Church Um or Jordan Walker is not your right fielder It should be Church Um I think We don't need to spend any time on on the right hand right field side We that seems the decision's been made It is what it is We've talked a lot about it Um but left field is seemingly open but to me that almost feels like a waste of Nathan Church's strong defense uh putting him in that left field So I don't know I'm starting to feel like Should we break camp with church as the starting center fielder And Scott is the uh opening day fourth out fielder and we'll see how it breaks down

Ben: I mean, I think the more obvious move is that Jordan Walker should not be taking at bats.

Nate: just saying

Ben: Um,

Nate: is realistically on the table or at least we have just maybe certainly it would seem like that would make the most sense to most people but everything that we've heard so far is that Jordan Walker is a starting right fielder So until told otherwise I just I don't know that it's worth it to break down anymore Why that is the case you

Ben: Well,

I, I, it, it does, I just have to say it because it pains me not to say it. Um, if we're taking into account our spring training numbers, Jordan Walker does have a seven

Nate: rough He's

Ben: plus.

Nate: Someone

Ben: I just had to say it.

Nate: a good opening bit referencing Jordan Walker's swing Um and I I want to get to it Um we've actually had a bunch of people submitting which has been a lot of fun So thank you everyone But um it means I do leave don't get to all of them but uh but yeah Jordan Walker is uh I mean it's is the one where you go well spring doesn't really matter Right It's only

Ben: Right, right.

Nate: Like come on on Give him a break

Ben: I do wish that we could get truth serum from the team and like their internal analytics to understand like, are they seeing something that is making them less worried than what I'm seeing? Like, is the bad path looking better? Like are there some hidden exit below numbers is are, are they, they have a hip tracking apparatus attached to 'em to make sure that hip's not dive like.

Nate: uh you know is

Ben: I, yeah, I don't, I don't know what to think, but it's, it's worrisome.

Nate: but back to this point like I do think Nathan Church has himself between his MLB time last year and his spring this year Like what more do we wanna see from him You know and uh I I I guess like the ar the counter argument is that maybe what we're seeing is is like the best version of Nathan Church and we want to continue to chase the upside of a Victor Scott and Chase the upside of a Of uh Jordan Walker and and and see what we've got in Velazquez And we kind of know what we've got in church So like he's the fourth outfielder but he may end up being a starter but just not yet Like I guess that's maybe the the counter argument here Um I don't know He's been good at the major league level so maybe he's just one of our guys

Ben: I, I also, I think the fact that we are having like a conversation in and around the idea of like, how are the Cardinals gonna get all these good players played appearances. Like, I kind of didn't expect to have that. So the fact that like, and, and maybe it's not a problem of too many good players because again, Jordan Walker is one of those, and Lars Ne bars hurt, but we do.

Nate: could be good

Ben: There we go. There we go. There we go. But at least there, there's, there's optimism in the way that, that sentence is, is constructed. You know what I'm saying? Like that's, that's good.

Nate: and the outfield has an average WWRC plus of like 73 You know what Between Walker Scott and whoever is in left field like a potential real problem Uh

Ben: Okay. If you had to place a small wager on who is going to have the highest WC plus in the Cardinals outfield for the year 2026 and let's, or yeah, let just on bat who, who do you think it's gonna

Nate: Josh

Ben: be? Gosh, bias. Yeah. I think that that's a good bet.

Nate: I mean uh like It's it's slim hickens you know like you you it's basically who do you think is going to actually have a breakout right so if I'm gambling between Baez Scott and Walker I think I go some the bias crushes in the miners and gets called up in August or whatever and has a uh has a better WRC play Plus in his cup of coffee Cup of Um

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: otherwise it might be Nathan Church is your safest bet you know

Ben: Kinda where I'm leaning.

Nate: And he plays

Ben: Nathan Church and War. I feel more comfortable with Nathan Church than just straight up WRC Plus. 'cause we know he is gonna bring some good defensive value.

Nate: hope it's Victor Scott because he the combo of I mean it'd be so much fun

Ben: I hope it's Jordan Walker. But that's, you know, you know, whatever.

Nate: Well let's uh let's move to the other side of the ball here hand bone and and talk about some of the pitching Um we're really getting some clarity on what this starting rotation is going to look like I think with a few decisions that have just been made and and some of the performances Um but you made a little list here of some of the some of the top hot topics that you wanna run through it uh for us real quick

Ben: Yeah. And I guess speaking of decisions being made, uh, we just learned that, uh, right before we hopped on, Matthew Liberator has been named the opening day starter. Um, I think that makes sense. I think that that is fun. Um, but I wanted to talk about Dustin May for a second. Uh, Dustin May has another strong start.

Uh, he faced the gnats. He went five innings, one walk, three Ks. And the stuff looked electric. The fastball hit a hundred miles per hour is 99.6 miles per hour. I'm calling it a hundred miles per hour. Um, the velo on all of his pitches has increased every start. Um, and I think he added almost two miles per hour on his fastball, uh, this start, which is just crazy.

So,

Nate: that's good

Ben: I mean, he is looked. It's pretty good. He's looking healthy. Um, you know, this is as hard as he's thrown since he came up, really. Uh, we'll see if he can carry it through the big leagues, but the fact that, or through the, the rest of the season, the fact that he's throwing that sinker that hard and that he has a sweeper, that also looks pretty devastating.

Right now I am. Feeling pretty high on what Dustin may might bring to the Cardinals in 2026, assuming, you know, hopefully he can get lucky with some health and things can roll his way. But everything we're seeing is looking good and it's, it's, it's, it's progressing exactly like how you'd wanna see a starter like this progress in spring.

Nate: Yeah it's exciting I think we were all pretty hyped cautiously hyped on the Dustin May signing for a lot of reasons And but it was always a high risk low risk high reward sort of thing

Ben: The money is not a lot, which makes it all a lot easier.

Nate: high risk cause it's not really a risk to any of anything at all So uh I'd say it was uh uh you know it's a but but the range of outcomes is wild from like not throwing a pitch for the Cardinals this year to uh ace level production Right Uh every single thing in between that is on the table Um and you certain certainly seems like he's trending not you never want to throw ace like I'm not to be that good but

Ben: No.

Nate: right now Spring is telling us he's gonna be closer on the side of healthy and productive versus uh anything else which is great

Ben: I was trying to look for something like a spin rate, decrease a, a movement, decrease, say anything, and it's, everything is looking really good under the hood. And like, let's remember, it's one of the most highly regarded prospects in baseball. Um, 6, 5, 5, 6 years ago, something like that.

Nate: Yeah Many thought he was going to be the best pitcher in baseball at one point so like it's there there's a reason there's hype and there's a reason he got $12 million having not really done much yet at the major league level on or at

Ben: Must be nice, right?

Nate: it's basically paid for upside you know Um I'm assuming there were other people in on him and the Cardinals had to outbid them for him I I don't know but I'm I'm assuming um so it's good We we actually we were watching him warm up at spring training and we were talking about like It still seems like best case scenario is that he's incredible and the Cardinals trade him at the deadline for hopefully a massive return um because he's on a one year deal with a mutual option which I just cannot Think of a situation that results in a both sides taking the mu mutual option but uh it's also kind of fun to dream on Like let's say we get a true Dustin May breakout He loves it The Cardinals actually are better because of it We you can see the future of success in St Louis in 2027 and Dustin May says I would actually like to stick around What can I get on a three to four year year deal Or something like that You know Or or I guess you baseball's going right now He's gonna want $120 million three year contract with opt-outs after every year or Like what

Ben: Sure.

Nate: look like to keep Dustin May and actually say great You're actually just a part of this core you are a

Ben: I, I do think that that is the actual best case scenario for. dusted may thing to go is, is the Cardinals actually retain him and he becomes a part of the team

Nate: we also got some news about, Dick Fitz. Which is again, revealing about the the opening day rotation. Ben, you want to, uh, to walk us through that?

Ben: Yeah, I'm a little disappointed about this one because I'm pretty high on everything that we've seen from him, uh, since he's become a Cardinal. Uh, but Dick Fitz is. He's been optioned down to AAA Memphis. Um, and that came right after a start in which he, uh, kind of bounced back from his previous start. He went four and two thirds innings against the Nats tallied 11th swing and misses the fastball.

V low was again, super duper high, like sitting 97, 98. Um, so, you know, I, I, I think, I think it makes sense. Because of the next guy that we're going to talk about. Kyle Leahy has had a decent spring. Michael McGreevy has had a dec decent spring. Obviously Lior in May are not moving anywhere. Um, and I think it just comes down to options.

And I, I assume that the Cardinals believe that they have some, um, they have a developmental plan that they'd like, uh, Richard Fitz to kind of key into. So I think in many ways it does make sense to move him down to aaa. But just based on the, the ceiling that I perceive and, and the, what he looks like and, and the velo and, and just some of the things I was kind of pulling for him to squeeze into one of those spots.

Or the cardinals go with the six man rotation, which I've been, you know, not banging the drum for, but I don't think is the worst idea.

Nate: Um, yes, I, I'm a little disappointed as well. I'm guess I'm going to trust. The, the blooming goons here that this makes sense from a developmental standpoint. I think it's kind of what you were just saying is that like, w we almost need an answer faster on Lahey ante. even may, you know, some of these guys that are in the rotation right now, uh, we'd much rather just get an answer on them. And make a decision and move on. Does Kyle Leahy actually makes sense as an MLB starter? We think fits, does. Uh, but we have more time, more control. Um, so why not? Throw Lehe out there and, and hopefully get an answer in the first couple months, is ante better than he's been? Uh, let's get that answer. I, I think both of us are not particularly hyped on him, uh, as a member of the starting rotation, but it is what it is, right?

He also doesn't deserve to be not at the MLB level. So I don't know. I'm always torn on, on ante. Um, which I guess is a, maybe a good transition into. Some information about ante

Ben: Uh, pale

Spring moves along after making his third start in a row against the Marlins. Uh, what we can say is, at least in this spring, pale has re re, were. His pitch usage. Uh, so he is throwing his slider about 33% of the time so far. His sinker has bumped up to his second most used pitch and he has brought his four E down to 20%, uh, which is good news.

Nathan, uh, because his slider held hitters to an 87 WRC plus last year, his sinker. Allowed a one 19 WRC plus and his four seam somehow allowed a 1 56 WRC plus against Major League batters last season. Nate, that is so bad that I think, I would argue, just to throw that pitch away and I think that it, it is.

Inherent, it's a good thing that palate is making an adjustment and he is leaning into throwing his best pitch or his better pitches more often. Um, but the fact that his fastball is that garbage is hard for me to imagine him being a major league starter. Now that being said, I do think that there is a good reliever in here if this guy is pumping slider, curve ball sinker and throws away that for seam.

I think you have a late inning reliever here. Uh, at least potentially, but those numbers don't inspire confidence, um, at all.

Nate: last year. Remember, it's like he has six different pitches. None of them are good, so

Ben: Yeah. I.

Nate: know what to do with him, I guess. It makes sense. Maybe if he's having a good spring to say, all right, buddy, you got one more look in the rotation you've gotta come in with some new pitches, some more clarity about what you're trying to accomplish when you're up there. Um, and there's no doubt that you can spin the ball, um, but you gotta

Ben: Yeah,

Nate: delivering a 1 57 WRC plus on your fastball.

Ben: I, I don't know the answer, but that has to be one of the worst in baseball. Um.

Nate: Yeah.

Ben: I'll, I'll look that up while we're talking. But the reason why he's still in the conversation, like the reason why Richard Fitz is going down and pale is sticking around is because over 14 innings in spring, uh, he is still doing that pale thing.

And by that I mean he is not giving up homers 'cause that guy does not give up homers, uh, at all. He is got a great ground ball rate and his ERA is 2.57 while his xFi is 4.85 and. You know, maybe that'll keep going. Maybe it won't. Maybe it'll get worse, but right now the surface level stats look fine.

Nate: yeah. Surface level, rarely. Like you can, there are guys who can sustain, um, uh. You know, underlying stats that are either better or worse than what their surface level stats are for an extended amount of period. You don't normally see it. That big of a difference though between a nearly two and a half runs, uh, from an ERA standpoint in between ERA and XFIP. Uh, so

Ben: Oh.

Nate: that he's gotten a little lucky in his incredibly small sample size that is spring. Um, but I guess run him out there again. I don't know. You know, I, I, I'm torn

Ben: I,

I, I think, I think this is like, I think this is the thing of like. Cardinals, I'm sure the Cardinals know exactly what I just said and getting ante to become a reliever. You know, there, there's probably like four or five conversations that need to happen and maybe they're in conversation one or two right now.

First conversation is, all right, Andre, your fastball stinks. We gotta throw that slider more and then maybe. You know, the conversation in a month or two is we really think your, your breaking ball stuff is great and we think it's gonna play up in the pin. And we, you know, they slowly 'cause it, it's kind of hard to, especially when no one's, I guess, necessarily beating on the door.

You know? I don't know. It comes down to people management, but that's may, maybe I'm, I'm being too polite, but maybe there's something like that happening.

Nate: Yeah, I think it's just simply there isn't a huger, huger.

Ben: You jerk.

Nate: rush for any of this, you know, so why not let everybody take their time? Let everybody develop, let, let fits, get super

Ben: I,

Nate: and, and showcase some of it at aaa. And then there will, there will inevitably be a spot for 'em.

Ben: I agree. I think, but I also kind of have a feeling that like. A scarce commodity is big league. Big league starts for this group of starting pitchers. So I, I think I, I think you're right. There is no rush, but you only get so many games to start. You only have home so many opportunities to hand out to other guys.

And I'm kind of like, I, I feel like we have enough information on ante to move off, but we're not doing that. I.

Nate: Trust the process. Hand bone. Okay. Um, all right, well, I think let's, let's move on. Um, I guess we could touch on George Soriano looking pretty good. Um, but we'll, we'll dig into more of that next week as we have our. Last, our opening day episode, ham Bone is next

Ben: Wow.

Wow.

Nate: 70 with us, which is always a delight. Um, so we're gonna talk about the Cubs and, and, and some other league news here in a moment, but before we do, wanna remind our listeners that this show. Is of course, listener supported on patreon.com, patreon.com/talking about birds, where you can find, uh, all of our different tiers and all the different things that we're throwing out there for subscribers. Uh, but anyone who subscribes at any level gets access to our private discord server. It's the bird scored.

We talk about it a lot on the show at this point. Um, but it's essentially a private chat network, um, of listeners and ourselves and some other people in the cardinal, uh, baseball blogger and podcaster sphere are in there. Uh, and it's a really good place to talk to other Cardinal fans and not have to deal with sort of the. Empty void, annoyance of what modern social media is. Just talk to other real humans who enjoy the cardinals like we do. Uh, you can join that again at patreon.com/talking about birds. Uh, we also appreciate anyone who takes a moment to leave a review in their favorite podcast platform. It really does help. And of course, tell your friends, tell your family. now's a great time to get on board as the season is about to start, ham bone. Where else can people find us online?

Ben: Uh, yeah, you can find us on all the socials. Uh, we're on Blue Sky Instagram, TikTok. We got a TikTok. Come check us out on TikTok, please. I beg you, um, you can find all the podcast information at talking about birds. Dot com. We have shirts available, all kinds of shit over there. Uh, if you prefer to watch this show, you can watch it on YouTube.

We're on YouTube. You can look at us right now. Um, we're looking at you, looking at us. What is up? Uh, you can email us. At talk about birds@gmail.com and of course you can call us and leave a voicemail or send a text message to 8 4 8 48 birds. That's 8 4 8 4 8 2 4 7 3 7.

Nate: Eight four. 8 48 birds. All right. Ham bone. We've been covering every other team in the NL Central. we ramp up to the start of the season, the FanGraphs has projected the Cubs. To win the NL Central. Um, how you feeling about the 2026 Cubs?

Ben: Well, I think they're pretty good. Nate and I, and they made some moves this season that I think, at least for the short term, are going to be very good. For the cubbies. I, I think probably the biggest, most, uh, uh, uh, headline gathering news is that they brought in Alex Bregman on Big Money to be their third baseman now, and for the next handful of years, um, they also made a rather impactful trade with the Marlins to bring Edward Cabrera.

Um. Outside of that, I think this team is going to look a lot like what we saw last year. Maybe the other only notable thing is that, say a Suzuki, uh, his status is kind of up in the air from that injury he sustained in the WBC sliding hard into second base. It's not like he'll be out all year, um, but he's definitely gonna start his season.

You know, not, not the right, uh, or, or, sorry, not healthy at least. Um, I think that this team is still kind of weird. Um, I, I think that bringing in Bragman and Edward Cabrera, they've kind of been, like in the Jed Hoyer era, they've been what I view kind of solely focused on run suppression. Um, and I think that that has worked out decently well.

Um. Their rotation is good, not great. Their defense is great. Um, and, and I think they kind of build their team in that fashion. And I think so far so good, you know, um, that,

that's my like 30,000 foot view of the cubbies this year.

Nate: Yeah, I think they're probably projected win the central. account of having probably the highest floor of the NL Central.

Ben: Sure.

Nate: I don't know if that's exactly right, but like, I feel like the reds we know are boomer bust likely, uh, pirates made some good additions, but it's really centered on if that pitching is as good as we hope it will be. And that's always a gamble, uh, you know, gambling on any starting rotation. you know, then there's the, the Cardinals obviously. So having the, and the brewers are what they are, um, but they're starting rotation I think is, is a, a bigger question than it has been in years past. Um, but the cubs are kind of, they're kind of like how the Cardinals were back in the day where. don't really have, like, Bregman is a star, he is not like an MVP level star. Um, but they're, they're kind of just everywhere have some depth bringing in. Matt, uh, Bregman pushed Matt Shaw into a super utility role, you know, and so if someone gets hurt, they are just gonna have Matt Shaw ready for that. They have some interesting pictures that are near. MLB ready at aaa, like Jackson Wiggins. So I think they, they're built for a, a full season. Um, there's

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: there on just how good they will be. Um, 'cause this could also be an 86 win team and that might be enough for the NL Central. Um, but I think

Ben: Yeah, that's, that's a good point.

Nate: I think it's very unlikely that this team bottoms out. You know, like of all the teams in the NL Central, you can pretty easily project like a 70 win outcome. Um, but I think the Cubs if you run this a million times, which is what these rejections are, they just don't fuck it up the most out of all the other teams and,

Ben: Yeah, I think.

Nate: you know,

Ben: Yeah, looking at their numbers from last year, they had the lowest whip in all of MLB. Uh, they were number one in baseball. They had the lowest pitcher walks in MLB and in defensive, uh, war DRS, um, they were second in baseball. This, this is what they do. They, they don't make mistakes f on the, on both sides of the ball.

And I think like when you break down their lineup, Nate. It is. It it, it's funny, there's no great player. Maybe PCA has the potential to be a great player, but just to go down them really quick. Michael Bush is a very good first baseman. Not a great one. Alex Bregman. Very good. Not great. Third baseman. Ian Hap.

We know all about him. Seia. Suzuki has legit power. Maybe could be great. PCA, Nico Horner Dance. B Swanson. That's their first seven. All seven of those guys are, are guys that can make an all star team that can be, uh, you know, a top five player at their position in baseball. They all have that potential.

And then their dh, uh, their projected DH for the season is Moises Ballesteros, who. Could be a total thumper. I think he's kind of an X factor for, uh, the cubbies coming into this season. And then their projected catcher is Carson Kelly. We know all about Carson Kelly. He kind of had a weird season last year, but it's just all seven in a row.

Good players,

Nate: Yeah. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Like these guys all could be two war, they could all be five war, probably not more than that for any of 'em. But there's an outcome

Ben: right?

Nate: of these guys are four to five war and you end up having a really, really good team. I, I think it's fair that they are picked to win the central, um, for that. I also think on a game per game basis, these guys are gonna be beatable also. You know? So we'll see how it goes.

Ben: Um, also I think worth calling out. Um. You know, Matt Boyd is probably gonna be their number one starter, which he does not inspire a ton of confidence for me, even though he had a fine year last year. Uh, Danielle Lencia, who, if you watch the WBC earlier this week, had a couple of amazing performances.

Um, he's gonna be their closer, a kid that kind of came out of nowhere. And, you know, who's supposed to be their setup man right now is Phil Maan was brought in as a free agent. Um, so that is.

Nate: Yeah.

Ben: Disappointing. Yeah, there is a funny cardinal stripe. Yeah, I was just gonna say this,

Nate: is our, our good buddy, Dylan Carlson. So

Ben: we got Phil Maan, Dylan Carlson and Carson Kelly. Obviously some of those with more cardinals, uh, um, blood in them than than others, but it's, it is interesting and yeah, I, I think that this team is going to be good. I, I, I agree with you that they are very likely to win, but I could see the brewers are reds, trouncing them, um, if things go right for those teams.

Uh, the cubbies were 92 and 70 last year. They had a 1 44 run differential. Uh, they are projected this season to be 85 and 77, and their projected run differential is 34. Um, you're taking the over or the under on that Nate.

Nate: Uh, well, I gotta be consistent. I think with what I've said here, I will take the over. I, don't, I don't know. These breakdowns always make me, I I, I don't even remember what I said in past episodes if I said the Cubs are the most likely to win the central, but, uh, I will take the over based off of everything we've said today.

I think unfortunately, they have enough depth. I think the Bregman signing was big. I think the, the Cubs are going to be good this year. I think they have some questions for future years, which will work out for the Cardinals, but I think they're gonna be good this year and I'll take the over.

Ben: I, I think. I agree with everything you said. I do think the PCA thing is a huge question. I could see him being the best center in fielder in baseball this year, or we taught, we covered it quite a bit last year. Like he just fell off a cliff, uh, in the second half of last season. Can he come back from that?

You know, can he make that adjustment? Can he quit swinging at everything that comes at 'em? Um.

Nate: 27 home runs in the first half last year, and then three in the second half or something like that. Just like a com, a total collapse. I might have those numbers off a little bit, but I don't think I'm off that by that much. Uh,

Ben: 25 in the first half, six In the second half, he hit 2 65, average in the first half, and two 16 in the second half. It, uh, it, it really was like a bad, long. Drop off his OPS in the first half, 8 47 OPS in the, in the second half, 6 34. I mean, that's just two different players.

Nate: Yeah.

Ben: Yeah. Um, but I think,

yeah.

Nate: of the, and he is, but he is still a good defender, so he'll, like,

Ben: Right.

Nate: still be valuable to them on the field. Um, but that's the sort of stuff, it's like, could they be a 90 plus win team or, or like a mid eighties.

Ben: I think the cubbies will eclipse 85 wins, and I think they'll do quite a bit better than their projected 34 run Diff

Nate: Yeah, I think so too. All

Ben: all.

Nate: hit a little League News. What do you wanna talk about? Ham Bone.

Ben: Well, we gotta talk about the WBC, the, uh, Venezuela wins. They're becoming the 51st state in these United States. Um, you know, it's all looking up for the Venezuelan team. Uh.

Nate: so congrats of Venezuela. Uh, you know, great game. What an embarrassing, embarrassing overall experience for team USA beside like, between the whole like, oh, we thought we won, so we were all hung over and played poorly to

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: like milk toast, entire vibe of the team. This is the.

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: the best baseball team that has ever been put together. it, it was somehow the most boring baseball team that has ever been put together at the same time, like the, the, the Gulf from. Skill level to enjoyment of the game has never been wider. I felt like I, I mean, I know when you're, you're getting schooled by, uh, good pitching, you always look bad, but like the vibes around the team were, were rough.

Uh. This whole like over-indexing towards support the troops was rough. The, the, uh, the every other team looking like they're having the time of their life and, and our band of dudes all like. like they could care less. Like it was just an overall disappointing thing, and I don't even care about the loss on the field.

Venezuela was great. Any team can beat anybody in a single game, and Venezuela played well and they won. But I left that thing by the end of that game. I was rooting for Venezuela, man. I was like, just let 'em have it. They clearly like are having more fun. The crowd is in it for them way more than it is for team USA. They're playing well, so just give it to 'em. It should have been Dominican Republic, Venezuela. That would've been a way more fun. Alright, I'm done

Ben: Wow.

Nate: what's your, uh, what's

take?

Ben: I think maybe that those are some interesting hot takes over this fun exhibition. Uh, I, I don't know about you, but when Bryce Harper hit that home run, I stood up from the couch and was clapping and I scared the shit outta my cats. Uh, and Jeffy, who's standing right over my shoulder right now was, uh, really not happy with how excited I was.

Um, so I thought that that was great. I do think, you know, I, I, I, first off, I think that this was the best, uh. WBC that we've had, you know, the, the side storyline of Italy going deep, Venezuela winning for the first time. Um, just, there was a lot of fun happening this year and I think that the WBC has only gotten better as it's been a thing.

I think that MLB, uh, like I would, I wouldn't mind seeing it expanded. Um, maybe more games, you know, I don't know what the best thing is, but I think that they're doing a great job and they have. F they. I think that's, everything about it is great. The fact that I have really good, interesting, fun, meaningful baseball to watch while spring training is happening, I think is great because it's getting me just amped and more amped and amped for the season.

And then, yeah, I think back to kind of what you're complaining about, I think that this is probably the sign that Mark DeRosa should no longer be the manager. And I do wonder if there is some introspection on Team USA about taking this like business militaristic like. Very unfun way about going about this, thinking that it giving, it gave them an edge.

Um, I do wonder if they're sitting back today thinking maybe we could have had more fun, uh, doing that. Even Team Japan, like Shhe Tani was, uh, joking. Uh, a team walked him, uh, intentionally walked him and he was kind of giving trouble to the dugout, saying like, you know, are you afraid of me? Um, and he always comes across as I think very.

Work like, uh, or often comes across like that. So I, I do think that there's, there's probably some feelings about that. I do think that Mark OSA is really, you know, when you have all stars like these like. Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge don't need coaching from Mark DeRosa, but the manager does set the tone, set the vibe.

He's the one that's bringing in these weird guest speakers that I also thought was bizarre. Um, like, do you really think bringing in an an ex-military member or Michael Phelps is going to make Aaron Judge play better? Like, what are we, what are we doing? That makes no sense to me.

Nate: whole thing. Kyle Rowley's wearing a shirt that, uh, is just the same text as what's on the front of a, uh, a claymore, you know, a mo, like a, a anti-tank.

Ben: I didn't,

see that.

Nate: The whole thing was their, their, their celebration was a salute to support the troops. You know, I, I'm thinking they lost, I hope the troops are

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: that's a, pretty bad, that's pretty sad. I hope they're all okay. Um, but, and I know this whole thing's been going on for over a year, the prep for it. So it really had nothing to do with like current stand, current day situation and things like that. But maybe read the room a little bit, um, but also just. I don't know. I found it all. So it's like, what a, what a. Bare minimum, like country, um, what's the word I'm looking for? Uh, like when every other league is like, we're playing for our, for the heart and soul of our, of our country. We're playing for the kids, we're playing for the people. We're doing it for each other. Uh, and they're all having a ton of fun and the crowd is full of people dancing and screaming and all that. And then you've got USA saying, we're doing it for the troops. And they're all being like. I'm a military man and, uh, I don't know. The whole thing was pretty off putting to me. Um, but to your point, at the beginning of this very successful tournament, and like I, I still love the WBC, I just hope team USA comes in, in the future with more of a desire to have fun with it and not

Ben: They,

came off,

Nate: executors

Ben: off like a bunch of squares. They, they, they came off extremely uncool. Um. And I don't know why that is. Yeah, I, the only thing that makes sense to me is it's Mark DeRosa. It's Mark DeRosa. Leading, leading that. Um, I mean, that being said, like I don't think of Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge necessarily being cool guys.

Like, I don't think Paul Skeens is cool. I don't like, may, maybe this team was lacking some, some swagger just from like the, like

the nature of the players.

Nate: Yeah. All the fun players in MLB, were all on a different country's team,

Ben: Yeah. Well, I mean, who is a fun, well, PCA is is fun, but he's probably too young to really shift the vibe of a clubhouse like that. I think that the US has some fun players, but yeah, it is like. There's no Wilson Contreras on the US team. There's no Ronald Laia. There's nothing like that is happening. You know, I saw Matt Holiday was in the, uh, in the dugout for the US and he's probably cracking jokes, but again, he's not moving the needle as far as being serious as

But, um, yeah, anyways, I, I, I enjoyed it. I hope the US has more fun and is more successful next year. Um, and I enjoyed, there was some really great baseball.

Nate: we watched that great game, was it between Chinese, Taipei and, and Korea in the pool play. Like it was a

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: thing overall. And I, I'm super excited for Venezuela, which was a good team in their own right. Definitely not a favorite to win, but a really, really good team. So,

Ben: You know, I feel like people were not giving the, like you look like Jackson Cheerio was their ninth place hitter. I feel like they're not giving enough credit for how good of a team they actually are. Like, what the hell?

Nate: were probably like fourth seed, right? Like you probably do USA, uh, Dr. Japan, then them would be, my guess is where you would put

Ben: Yeah,

Nate: so, you know, it, it's just the, the star-studded nature of team USA, the history of Team Japan. And then, I mean, the DR team was quite stacked as well.

It's,

Ben: yeah,

Nate: to any of those teams. Um, but they were good.

Ben: yeah. That skiing's performance against the DR was amazing.

Nate: yeah, yeah. Um, and Nolan McLean did great, uh, like two runs and nearly five innings in that environment. Like, know,

Ben: He did

Nate: it was not the pitching that was the problem. Um, and again, I don't, the game was the game.

It was a good game. I, I watched the whole thing and, and that Harper Home run was a lot of fun. Um, so anyway, I guess we'll do it again in three years. Right. I

that. did I say? It doesn't matter. All right. Um, we'll do it again at some indefinite time in the future. Maybe there'll be no 20, 27 season.

We'll just do like eight versions of the WBC.

Ben: Three. Um, okay, I'll take that.

Nate: What do you think? All right,

Ben: Sounds like baseball.

Nate: well we've got to, uh, we've gotta wrap up this episode, ham Bone. So I think we should play our little game. Are you ready?

Ben: Let's do it.

Nate: Okay. So, uh, for listeners, uh, who've been with us for years, you've heard us talk about this game. We, we do it at the beginning of the year, every year, and then we check in throughout the year to see how we're doing. Uh, this is Draft Day Heroes and Hatchlings edition. If I remember to put in the song, shout out to Associate sound producer. Chris, uh, thank you for the awesome open, oh, uh,

Ben: Wow.

Nate: The way this works is, Hamon and I are going to draft six total St. Louis Cardinals. Three of them will be on the 26th Man roster, and three of them from anywhere else. Uh, at the end of the year, whichever group of six has acquired the most war will win. Uh, so we've had some very close results. One year we actually tied, which was hilarious. And then last year, I think, uh, was it I ran away with it or you ran away. One of us ran away with

Ben: I, I think you ran away with it. Yeah, it was Nolan Ado kind of, uh, tanked me.

Nate: right, right, right. Uh, so ham bone, I do wanna throw out a pitch for you on this real quick. Uh, I think weather Holt should count as in the 26th man, uh, bucket for this purposes. 'cause we all know he's making the roster and I feel like it would be, do you know what I

Ben: Yes, I vote. We use as we're recording on March 18th, we use FanGraphs roster resource, and if they're projected to be on the 26th Man, meaning JJ Weather, Holt and Nelson Velazquez are part of the 26th Man. Um, for, for this, for this selection process, I know you're begging to get Nelson Velazquez.

Nate: uh, how, how would you feel if Velazquez led the team in war this year? What do you think that means?

Ben: It, it means I'm watching a lot of some other team this year 'cause that is that that has been a boring and wholly unsuccessful year.

Nate: Yeah, I think you're probably right. Um, okay, so let me see. I'm going to, how do we want to pick who goes first here? Should I roll a dye or flip a coin?

Ben: Just flip a coin, Nate.

Nate: All

Ben: Well, you won last year. I feel like that means I should just go first.

Nate: Sure, that's fine. That's as good as any, uh, okay. So we can draft in any order here. Um, you don't have to pick, you know, your heroes or hatchlings in any order, but we typically it in a pretty obvious order, I'd say.

So, ham Bone, you have the first pick in the heroes and Hatchlings draft. Who are you going to take?

Ben: So, you know, there's, there's a couple of guys that are up here, but I think wanting to go with what I feel most confident getting me the win this year. I'm gonna go first. Overall, the St. Louis Cardinal starting shortstop Mason win.

Nate: gonna give you the win. That's where

Ben: he's gonna give me the win.

Nate: The win, the mason

Ben: Um, we know he could play defense. Hopefully he hits a little more this year and, and runs away with it.

Nate: I think it's a pretty clear and obvious first, overall had I had, first overall I would've done Mason win as well, highest floor. And we're still dreaming on that offensive talent. Um, he led the team in war last year. It was near the top, uh, just on simply defense 'cause he

Ben: Sure.

Nate: Okay, so it comes to me. Do I go to the fun one? He is projected to be one of the team leaders in war.

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: to hand bone.

Ben: I mean, if you don't, I will.

Yeah.

Nate: I'm taking JJ Weather Holt second. Overall, I

Ben: Do it.

Nate: I think he's coming in. Uh, I think the defense was gonna be good enough, I think he's gonna hit well enough that he'll be one of those guys that it, the end of the day, didn't run away with any one snap, but contributed everywhere. And that is really good at accruing, uh, a healthy amount of war. I I, I'm

Ben: Wow.

Nate: win the league with this. Pick, but I think this is going to set me up with a solid floor, much like your Mason win pick.

Ben: Two guys up the middle. Makes sense.

Um, I, I think that makes my next pick pretty obvious as well. Uh, I'm gonna have to go with Yvonne Herrera as my second pick. Um, best hitter on the team right now. Obviously we're hoping for health. Hopefully he gets 500 at bats. Donking Dongs all over the place and we'll see how much he starts a catcher.

Maybe that will improve specifically his F four, getting out of the DH position from time to time. Um, but yeah, I think he's gonna have a nice ear for us.

Nate: Yeah, that's really, it's the DH verse catcher thing, I think will be. What really decides how he does in this department, um, 'cause dh it's really difficult to really accrue war no matter how good of a hitter you are. Um, but

Ben: Right.

Nate: did today, which we love to see, there's been concerns about his knee already, which doesn't bode well for long-term catching, but he did catch today, so they're not taking him off of it yet.

Ben: We will take it.

Nate: Yeah. All right. For me, for number two, I am torn. I've got, I feel like we're in this pool where a lot of guys are kind of around the same here. Um, and I, I think ham bone, I'm gonna go with your opening day starter.

Ben: Wow.

Nate: Liberator.

Ben: Wow. Love this for you.

Nate: talked about it last week.

We're sleeping on Libby. He just came off of a solid. league season. He's looking good in spring. He's got a high upside, he is got a pedigree. He's got a wide open runway to 32 starts. Uh, he doesn't need to improve that much to accrue a pretty good amount of war. Is there a pitcher with a higher ceiling?

Yes. Um, but I think

Ben: Is he made of glass?

Nate: exactly. So I will take. What I think is the best shot at having a good outcome from a war perspective in 2026. Matt Lior.

Ben: Um, well that makes my pick pretty easy. You know, I, I think, uh, I was probably gonna go Libby, if you didn't take him. Um, but that makes me want to go back to a position player. Alec Burley, Burleson. You know, you look under the hood, which I was doing, uh, over the past couple of weeks. There's a lot of things to like about the way he hits the ball, how hard he swings his launch angle, sweet spot, all that stuff.

Um, I wouldn't be surprised if Burley takes another step forward. He is our first baseman after all. So, um, you know, he's the guy.

Nate: And he might help him an average first baseman, not suffering a negative war in the outfield like he certainly did last year. Um,

Ben: is a boon. Yes.

Nate: I think it's a reasonable pick. I, I wrestled with him and, uh, the other starter, uh, and before making my last choice, um, so comes to me to take the last MLB

Ben: How,

brave are you going to be, Nate?

Nate: I know I've got a couple options here. I guess I could just say 'em out loud. I'm still thinking Dustin may do. I just go two pitchers and hope that one of 'em really runs away with it. Um, but I'm also, there's another guy with a high defensive floor on this team that was one of the lead team leaders in F four last year, despite not hitting the ball at all.

Uh, and, and that is a choice that I'm leaning towards 'cause everyone else. I mean, Gorman, Walker, Velazquez, PA Hayes, like, you know, they have some upside, but they're also my most likely to gimme a negative number in this But I

Ben: true.

Nate: Victor Scott has that floor that I'm looking for.

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: and I think I'm, I, I'm think I'm gonna go with Victor Scott too.

Ben: I like it. I think that's a smart move. I, I maybe would've gone, Dustin May

Nate: Yeah. Yeah. I just, I'm, I'm trying to avoid the, the zeros and the negatives here, you know, but

Ben: Smart.

Nate: May ends up leading the team in F four, ALA a Sonny Gray from last year, um, none of us are gonna be too upset about it. Um, but All right. We're into the minors section.

Ben: Okay. I think

Nate: yeah.

Ben: I feel pretty good about this pick. We've already talked to him about him on this episode. Um, but my first minor league pick, he just got demoted. Um, gimme Dickie. Fitz,

I think he's gonna come up and, and start some games, and I think he's gonna look pretty nice.

Nate: Yeah. I, I, if I had the first, overall, I think this is who I go as well. Um, despite him starting at minors, I think he will, uh, he will pitch at the major league level and probably a lot this year. And okay. Hmm. I've been going conservative this whole time. Ham Bone.

Ben: Damn it. I know what you're gonna do. Damn it,

Nate: Gimme.

Ben: was gonna be my next pick.

Nate: Yeah, I'm gonna

Ben: That was 100% what I was gonna do.

Nate: I don't know when it's gonna happen, um, if it's gonna happen anytime soon, but we know the path is clear and we, we saw him in Spring personally, we

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: Uh, I understand why he's not breaking camp with the team. But, um, you know, I, I'm, we're both huge fans, I'll go with him.

Ben: Okay. Okay. Okay. Um, I'm gonna go conservative on this next pick, uh, 'cause I want a guy who I think is gonna actually be in, in, in the big leagues at some point. So I'm gonna go with Thomas Sjc.

He will be up at some point and he'll probably be decent.

Nate: He will. Um, yeah, it's a good pick. I, I, I think it's probably capped as far as ceiling goes, but he, he's probably won't hurt you any And in years past on this game, we've had a number of people who have just never even played at the MLV level at this. And you're, you're certainly locking in some, some play appearances, I think

Ben: He will. Yeah, he will get played. Appearances. That is for sure.

Nate: Let's see. I'm checking to see if my guy is considered an opening day and I don't think he is. So ham bone. I think this is the year of the catcher transition. I think Jimmy Crooks

Ben: Oh yeah. Yeah. I was thinking the same thing. Yep.

I.

Nate: one way, I think by the end of the season. We have a really good chance at Jimmy Crooks being the starting catcher uh, with his defense and I think he can hit, he obviously looked terrible last year, but is a very small cup of coffee. still think he is very likely in the long-term plans for catcher for the St. Louis Cardinals, and I think we're gonna see that this year. So I will go with Jimmy Crooks. You've got one more hatchling to select.

Ben: Yeah. And honestly, I, I don't, I don't know who to pick. I, I don't, Jamie Crooks was next on my list. That's who I was feeling good about. Um, so now I'm just really kind of taking a shot in the dark of who I think is going to come up and affect the big. League roster. Um, and I think, uh, I think I'm gonna go with Tink.

Hes, I think he's gonna get called up at some point. I think he's gonna be in the bullpen, and I think he's gonna be pretty damn good. Um, so I'm gonna go Tink, hes, he's gonna make the jump in the bullpen at some point this summer and, and it'll be a lot of fun.

Nate: It's a fun pick. I think I have picked Team Kents two years in a row in this game, so

Ben: Yeah.

Nate: him the year he finally, uh, debuts for the Cardinals. Um, so I, I hope that this one works out great for you. Obviously we're all huge

Ben: Me too.

Nate: Um, and there's a path to the bullpen for him. Uh, I, I wish they would still keep him as a starter, but I, you know, it is what it is. I get it. Um, all right. I'm gonna follow in your footsteps to some degree here. And I think, uh, ham bone, we saw it in person. In, uh, at the Pittsburgh, at the Pittsburgh Um, I think there's another pitcher down there who will, uh, right the ship, put together a strong, uh, part of 2026 and make his big league debut. this year that is Quinn Matthews.

Ben: I hope you are right. I definitely think he'll be on the big league roster. I just, I don't know where he is as far as like. When is he getting the lever pulled for starts? I, I, I don't know that right now.

Nate: It'll be a competition. I think if he's crushing it down at AAA and any of the many guys that we're not comfortable with right now in the starter, in the rotation. If Matthews is the top of the pile, he'll get the first crack. You know? I think we all

Ben: Back to the pile.

Nate: I think fits will get the first crack. but I don't know. I think all these guys are gonna get up there at some point this year.

Ben: We're gonna see a lot of guys on the big League roster this year.

Nate: Yep. All right. Well, that's gonna do it. That was our, uh, heroes and hatchlings.

Ben: am,

Nate: how, how you feeling

Ben: I'm worried about nobody taking N Bar.

Nate: yeah. Let me, let me recap. The teams ham bone ends up with Mason Wynn, Yvonne Herrera, Alec Burleson, Dick Fitz, Thomas Ajay, and Tink Hez. I end up with

Ben: Wow.

Nate: Matthew Lior. Victor Scott, Josh Baez, Jimmy Crooks. And Quinn Matthews Hammond, I feel like mine has the highest ceiling, but has the most likely outcome of accruing three total war together. Um, and you have the highest floor, um, but you know, has, has the lower ceiling. So. we'll see. We'll track it all year. Uh, see where we were, right, where we were wrong. If you think we are stupid and made a bad choice, let Ben know. Um, you can email him, he can figure out his email address or you can, uh, get at us on all the different, uh, social medias. Find access to all of that at talking about birds. Com gonna do it for this week's episode, so we'll be back next week with C 70 for our opening day episode, ham Bone.

Ben: Wow. We did it. Wow.

Nate: Um, and I hope you all have a wonderful week, and until next week, go Cardinals.

Ben: Go Cardinals.